A 25 year rating on an LED is a rating on the diode under lab conditions. It is a real number and it is also not the number that decides when you next see us. Haven Lighting Evolution.
What actually fails, in order
- Terminations and connections, usually from water ingress at a badly sealed end cap
- Power supplies, which are the shortest-lived component in almost every system
- Controllers, which are electronics living outdoors in Nebraska
- The LEDs themselves, which mostly dim slowly rather than failing outright
What to expect realistically
Expect the diodes to still be working in fifteen years at reduced output. Expect to replace a power supply at some point. Expect the sealing quality of the original install to be the single biggest factor in how often anything goes wrong.
